The Full Situation
“The U.S. [will] begin testing nuclear weapons again for the first time in decades,” said president Trump, as reported by NPR. "I see [the kremlin] testing," he said aboard Air Force One, "and I say, 'Well if they're going to test I guess we have to test.’” While reports of Russia’s resumption of nuclear testing are not concrete, president Trump intends to respond in turn to any moves Russia chooses to make regarding nuclear tests. However, currently, tests may not be on the same scale as what was seen during the height of the Cold War. As said by US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, “the tests we’re talking about right now are system tests(…)these are not nuclear explosions. These are what we call noncritical explosions.”
The consequences of fully resuming nuclear testing, including full on nuclear explosions, could be quite widespread. As said by NPR, “The Nevada National Security Site, approximately 60 miles northwest of Las Vegas, is currently the only place where America could test a nuclear weapon.” The explosions could “shake buildings as far away as Las Vegas,” and “some of the newer buildings in Vegas could even be at risk of damage,” as said by Corey Hinderstein, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for Nuclear Peace. Aside from the immediate effects, geopolitical relations could be strained by the decision. As said by Yale Insights, “The short-term response is scary. There could be a ripple effect and lead to China, India, Pakistan, or North Korea also testing weapons.” Furthermore, “The Kremlin [warned], that if the U.S. resumes testing its weapons, Russia will as well.” This could be seen as similar to Trump’s earlier statement, reflecting the idea of mutual destruction.
If Trump were to go ahead with full scale nuclear testing, the process, as said by NPR, would likely involve “Scientists [digging] a deep shaft either directly below ground or into the side of a mountain. They then put a nuclear device in a chamber at the end of the shaft and seal it up. The detonation is contained by the rock, reducing the risk of atmospheric fallout.” Corey Hinderstein also says “While a basic demonstration test could be done in approximately 18 months, conducting a test that would produce scientifically useful data would likely take years.”
Overall, the risk of many countries resuming nuclear testing and the world entering a state similar to that of the Cold War era is relatively low for the present, considering both the immense geopolitical and regional consequences that could result from the detonation of a nuclear bomb, and the fact that initiating nuclear tests at all would be a lengthy process.
